Following reports that US and Israeli leaders have miscalculated consequences in the Middle East and lost control of escalation dynamics with Iran, this market resolves based on whether Iran conducts a direct military strike (missile, drone, or air attack) against Israeli territory or assets within the specified timeframe.
Market resolves YES if Iran launches a direct military attack (missiles, drones, airstrikes, or naval attack) against Israeli territory, military installations, or official assets. Indirect attacks via proxies alone do not qualify. Resolution requires credible reporting from major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC) or official Israeli government statements confirming the attack occurred.
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