US Defense Secretary Hegseth stated that the congressional reporting deadline for Iran military action 'pauses or stops' during a ceasefire. This suggests active consideration of Iran military operations is contingent on ceasefire status. The market resolves on whether the US initiates military action against Iran targets within the next 60 days (by June 30, 2026).
Resolution is YES if the US military conducts direct combat operations, airstrikes, or military attacks against Iranian targets or Iranian-controlled assets between May 1-June 30, 2026. Resolution is NO if no such operations occur within this timeframe. Cyber operations, drone strikes in third countries, or support for proxy forces do not count unless explicitly confirmed as direct US military action against Iran proper.